World oil demand is forecast to reach nearly 102 million barrels per day by 2023, higher than even before the pandemic.
In a report released on February 15, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said that global demand will increase by 2 million barrels a day compared to last year, reaching 101.9 million barrels this year. This is even an increase of 1.4 million barrels compared to 2019 – before the pandemic appeared.
The Asia-Pacific region contributed most of the increase. The Chinese market alone accounted for half of this increase, thanks to the removal of the Zero Covid policy last December.
The reopening of China is expected to increase air traffic. The industry has yet to recover to pre-pandemic levels. Jet fuel demand is forecast to increase by 1.1 million barrels per day.
Meanwhile, demand for other oil-based products is forecast to decrease due to weaker manufacturing activity. Gasoline demand will also go down as electric vehicles gradually become popular.
In terms of supply, production in January remained steady around 100.8 million bpd, the IEA said. Russian exports have also remained on the rise, despite US and European sanctions.
The IEA forecasts global oil production to increase by 1.2 million barrels in 2023. The increase is mainly in the US, Brazil and Norway.
Production growth is expected to outpace demand in the first quarter. But then, as demand in China picks up, the world could run out of oil in the second half of the year.
Russia earlier this month announced a 5% reduction in oil production in March, equivalent to a reduction of 500,000 barrels per day. This is a move that shows “Moscow may be having a hard time finding places to sell oil,” the IEA said.
Ha Thu (According to AFP)